2.1
How It Began — 28 February 2026
In the early hours of 28 February 2026, the US and Israel jointly launched "Operation Epic Fury" (American) and "Operation Roaring Lion" (Israeli) — a coordinated strike using Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 Spirit bombers and F-35 fighters targeting Iranian nuclear, military and leadership facilities. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed during the initial strikes.
Iran launched immediate retaliation against US regional allies: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar were targeted with ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles. The UAE, possessing the region's most sophisticated missile defence system, absorbed the majority of strikes. The first two days were the most intense in the modern history of missile defence operations.
2.2
Official UAE Data — Cumulative to 9 March 2026
Source: UAE Ministry of Defence, daily communiqués (mod.gov.ae)
| Threat Type |
Detected |
Intercepted |
Rate |
Missed / Sea |
| Ballistic Missiles |
253 |
233 |
92% |
18 fell in sea; 2 on UAE territory |
| Drones / UAVs |
1,440 |
1,359 |
94% |
81 fell on UAE territory |
| Cruise Missiles |
8 |
8 |
100% |
0 |
| TOTAL |
1,701 |
1,600 |
94%+ |
101 breached |
Casualties — 10 days of active conflict
4
Killed
Pakistani, Nepali and Bangladeshi nationals — contract workers in industrial zones
117
Injured
Multiple nationalities. Majority of injuries from interception debris
2.3
Today's Update — 9 March 2026 (Day 10)
Ballistic Missiles Detected15
Ballistic Missiles Destroyed12 (80%)
Ballistic Missiles — Fell in Sea3
Drones Detected18
Drones Intercepted17 (94%)
Drones — Fell on UAE Territory1
Day 10 Total~33 projectiles (vs. 716 on Day 2)
2.4
Decline of the Iranian Arsenal — Day by Day
Daily Projectiles Against UAE: Ballistic Missiles + Drones (1–9 March 2026)
Ballistic Missiles
Drones + Cruise
Mobile Launchers (Day 0)~480 operational
Mobile Launchers (Day 10)~100 operational (−79%)
Ballistic Missile Stock (Day 0)~2,500 estimated
Remaining Stock (estimated)1,000–1,200 (−52%)
Daily Missile Decline (Day 2→Day 10)−91% (175 → 15)
Pentagon Confirmation−90% ballistic attacks after B-2 strikes on launchers
2.5
Critical Development — New Supreme Leader
Critical Political Development — 8 March 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei — New Supreme Leader of Iran
On 8 March 2026, Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei (56, son of Ali Khamenei) as the new Supreme Leader — the first hereditary transfer of power since the 1979 Revolution. The IRGC pledged full allegiance immediately.
President Trump responded by declaring the appointment "unacceptable" and reaffirming the demand for "unconditional surrender" as the only path to a ceasefire.
Conflict implication: A new leader committed to his father's legacy eliminates any short-term possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. The conflict is expected to continue, though with progressively reduced intensity given the arsenal degradation trajectory.
2.6
UAE Official Position
"The UAE has thick skin and bitter flesh — we are no easy prey."
UAE President — public statement, March 2026
UAE MoD Statement"Flagrant violation of national sovereignty and international law"
Ambassador to IsraelRecalled — significant diplomatic signal
Iranian Assets in UAEFreeze under consideration (WSJ — not confirmed implemented)
Military postureExclusively defensive — consistent with stated policy
2.7
International Response
Trump demands "unconditional surrender" as the sole condition for a ceasefire. No negotiation signals.
Rafale jets operational in UAE from Day 1. Described as "stellar" support by military analysts.
Energy Minister warned of potential force majeure on gas exports. GCC condemned attacks but took no military action.
Refused use of its airspace to strike Iran. Condemned UAE attacks while maintaining strategic distance.
Authorised use of British bases for "defensive" strikes. Logistical and intelligence support provided.
Iran declared closure. ~150 vessels halted. War risk insurance surged. Global shipping costs rising.
3.1
UAE Financial Markets
−4.7%
DFM Benchmark
Reopening 4 March
−1.9%
Abu Dhabi ADX
Reopening 4 March
−4.93%
Emaar Properties
Reopening 4 March
−20%
DFM Real Estate Index
27 Feb → 9 Mar (16,910 → 5,469)
1–2 MarchDFM and ADX closed (weekend extension)
4 March (reopening)Dubai −4.7% | Abu Dhabi −1.9% | Nasdaq UAE −4.4%
Emirates NBD−5.2% on reopening
DFM Real Estate Index (peak → 9 Mar)16,910 → 5,469 (−20% cumulative)
3.2
Oil — Supply Shock
$117
Brent — 9 March
+$47 vs. pre-conflict ($70)
+67%
9-Day Surge
Largest daily move since 1988
~150
Vessels Halted
Strait of Hormuz closed
3.3
Aviation — Disruption and Recovery
12,300+
Cancellations
28 Feb–3 Mar · 7 ME airports
20
DXB Flights · Day 3
vs. 1,200+ under normal ops
60%
Emirates Today
106 flights · 83 destinations
1,140
DXB+DWC Flights
last 84h · 105,000 seats
27 FebNormal
28 FebDay 1
1 MarDay 2
2 MarDay 3
3 MarDay 4
4 MarDay 5
5 MarDay 6
6 MarDay 7
7 MarDay 8
8 MarEst.*
9 MarToday
Aviation Recovery Leadership
Emirates & Etihad: Accelerated Resumption — 100% Target Within Days
Emirates is already operating 106 return flights per day to 83 destinations — including UK (11 flights/day · 5 airports), India (22 flights/day · 9 gateways) and USA (7 active gateways). The Emirates CEO confirmed the full 140-destination network will be restored "within days." In just 84 hours (Mar 3–6), Emirates carried over 105,000 passengers from DXB across 1,140+ flights.
Etihad is already operating 25 international destinations — including London Heathrow, Paris, Frankfurt, New York JFK, Toronto, Zurich, Madrid and Seoul. New routes are being added daily. Etihad went from zero commercial operations on 28 Feb to active global coverage in under 10 days.
Emirates (DXB)🟢 60% network active · 100% target in days — 106 flights/day · 83 destinations · UK/India/US operational
Etihad (AUH)🟢 25 active destinations & growing — LHR, CDG, FRA, JFK, YYZ, ZRH, MAD, ICN + more being added
flydubai (DXB)🟡 Partial — reduced schedule Terminals 2+3
Air Arabia (SHJ/RKT)🟡 Resuming from 3pm today (9 Mar) — suspension ended
Saudia🟡 Partial — 2 flights/day each direction
Virgin Atlantic🔴 Suspended again — 9 Mar until 28 Mar 2026
Lufthansa Group🔴 Suspended — until 10 March
Air India🔴 Suspended (most routes) — until 10 March
RAK Airport (RKT)🟡 Partial resumption — suspended 28 Feb · reopened 4 March
3.4
JPMorgan — UAE Exits EM Indexes (POSITIVE)
Structurally Positive Development
UAE "Too Wealthy" for Emerging Market Status — JPMorgan
JPMorgan Chase announced the removal of the UAE from its Emerging Market Bond Indexes effective 31 March 2026 — implemented in 4 equal monthly steps.
Reason: The UAE has exceeded the bank's income thresholds for 3 consecutive years. The country has become too developed and prosperous to qualify as "emerging."
Current weight: UAE represents 4.1% of the flagship EMBI Global Diversified Index.
Significance for ARK investors: This is not a penalty. It is a formal graduation — the UAE is being reclassified into the developed markets category, which long-term attracts a different, more stable and institutional capital base. The timing during an active conflict makes the signal even more powerful.
4.1
Overview — Conflict Period
Week 9 (23 Feb–1 Mar)
AED 20.72B
5,473 deals
Pre-conflict
Week 10 (2–8 Mar)
AED 10.37B
3,038 deals
−50% WoW
February 2026 (full month)
AED 60.6B
16,959 transactions
+18.14% YoY
▷
ARK Interpretation: The 50% drop in Week 10 reflects the initial shock of an active conflict — NOT a fundamental deterioration. The market proved it remains functional even under wartime conditions. AED 10.37 Billion in transactions during the most intense week of attacks is extraordinarily resilient for any market globally.
4.2
Dubai — Detailed Data (2–7 March 2026)
Total SalesAED 8.48B / 2,632 transactions
Off-planAED 4.81B / 1,790 transactions (68%)
Secondary MarketAED 3.67B / 842 transactions (32%)
Mortgages657 transactions / AED 2.98B
Cash Buyers60–69% — structurally unleveraged market
Most Active ZonesDubai Marina · Palm Jumeirah · Burj Khalifa · Business Bay
2 March — Single Day874 transactions · AED 2.46B
4.3
Historic Luxury Sale — 4 March 2026
Historic Transaction — During Active Conflict
Aman Residences Dubai — AED 422 Million
AED 422M
Total Price (~$115M)
AED 13,525
Per Sq Ft (~$3,683)
Location: Aman Residences Dubai, Jumeirah Peninsula | Type: 6-bedroom | Ranking: 3rd most expensive transaction in Dubai history
Date: 4 March 2026 — with active attacks in progress.
Market signal: High-value capital is actively seeking Dubai even in times of regional crisis. The transaction demonstrates that the ultra-luxury segment operates on a "flight to hard assets" logic completely disconnected from short-term volatility.
4.4
DAMAC — Dominance Over 3 Days (3–5 March 2026)
3 March 2026AED 810M / 215 units
4 March 2026AED 740M / 208 units
5 March 2026AED 600M / 217 units
3-Day TotalAED 2.15 Billion / 640 units
4.5
Abu Dhabi — First 6 Days of March
Total 1–6 March 2026AED 3.8 Billion
SourceEconomy Middle East (Abu Dhabi DLD data)
4.6
Analysis: Counter-Intuitive "Flight to Safety"
ARK Analysis — Paradoxical Market Dynamic
The Conflict Created a "Flight to Safety" — Towards Dubai
The conflict created a paradoxical but historically precedented dynamic: high-value international buyers accelerated Dubai property purchases as a hard-asset hedge against regional instability.
The logic: in a regional war environment, fiat currency loses relative value, gold rises, and real estate in stable, safe jurisdictions becomes a natural capital destination. Dubai, despite its geographical proximity to the conflict, is perceived as the region's safe harbour.
Data confirm it: 2 March (the second day of attacks) — 874 transactions / AED 2.46B in a single day. This figure exceeds many "normal" pre-conflict days.
5.1
Investor Context — RAK in Numbers
AED 13.06B
Q1 2025
+850% vs. Q1 2017
AED 15.08B
FY 2024
+118% YoY
+17.2%
Al Marjan YoY
Largest RAK sub-market
+40%
Demand >AED 3M
January 2026 YoY
Al Marjan Premium (branded vs. non-branded)35–50% above non-branded developments
Growth since 2017+850% in Q1 transaction volume
5.2
Conflict Impact on RAK — Honest Assessment
Short-Term Impacts (Noise)
- RAK Airport: suspended 28 Feb; partial resumption 4 March
- Al Hamra zone: intercepted drone debris fell in the area (2 March)
- Developer bonds: fell up to 10 points across UAE sector (AGBI)
- Q1 2026 RAK transaction data: not yet published — absence of data ≠ absence of activity
- 48–72h pause in some site visits and closings at peak attack intensity
Long-Term Fundamentals (Signal)
- Wynn $5.1B: 5+ year development anchor; 100% structural complete
- Launch pipeline uninterrupted — Sheraton, Mondrian, Miraggio
- Prices: +17.2% YoY in Al Marjan — structural trend unchanged
- RAK is not the central conflict theatre — geographical distance from primary targets
- International demand for Gulf hard assets increases with regional instability
5.3
Wynn Al Marjan Island — $5.1B | Opening Q1 2027
RAK Market Structural Anchor
Wynn Al Marjan Island — Construction Status (9 March 2026)
100%
Hotel Structure
Confirmed 3 Feb 2026
83%
Facade Installed
26,000+ panels
48%
Wynn Bridge
548m connection to Dubai
Tower70 floors · 283m (spire: 352m — tallest in RAK)
Rooms / Suites / Townhouses1,530 keys — 100% structural complete
Total Investment$5.1 Billion (AED 18.7B)
Opening ConfirmedQ1 2027 — CEO Craig Billings, Annual Report 2025
Second PropertyJanu Al Marjan Island (Aman Group) — opening 2028
Wynn Bridge548m · E311/E611 connection · 48% complete
On-Site Videos
Wynn Al Marjan Casino Under Construction — March 2026
5.4
Recent Launches in Al Marjan (January–February 2026)
11 February 2026
Sheraton Al Marjan Island Residences (ATARA) — first branded Sheraton residences in the GCC. 159 apartments from AED 2.4M. Delivery Q3 2028. Developer: RAK Properties + Marriott International.
January / February 2026
Mondrian Al Marjan Island — AED 704 million sold in 2 hours at launch. Sky Mansion crowning the project: AED 38M. Developed with Sonder Hospitality.
February 2026
The Strand at Marjan (RAK Properties) — new launch integrated into the Al Marjan beach masterplan. Focus on mid-luxury residences and tourism.
Ongoing
Miraggio by Source of Fate — sales above AED 1 Billion, with 50% of units already reserved. International brand focused on wellness and resort lifestyle.
5.5
ARK Analysis — Short vs. Long Term in RAK
ARK Strategy Intelligence Position — RAK/Al Marjan
Short-Term Noise Does Not Alter the Structural Signal
The UAE–Iran conflict has created temporary operational disruption in RAK — airport closure, bond declines, a pause in site visits. None of these factors alter the structural investment case.
The presence of the Wynn Resort ($5.1B) opening in Q1 2027, the accelerating branded launch pipeline (Sheraton, Mondrian, Janu, Miraggio), and the +17.2% YoY trajectory in Al Marjan are driven by forces operating on a 5–10 year timeframe. A conflict of declining intensity, with an expected additional duration of 2–6 weeks, does not move those vectors.
Historically, real estate markets in peripheral instability zones (not the central conflict theatre) recover within 60–90 days after hostilities end — frequently above pre-conflict levels, as "pent-up" capital returns to the market.
Speaking on CNBC Arabia in early March 2026, Mohamed Alabbar — founder and Executive Chairman of Emaar Properties, the UAE's largest developer — offered a direct and contrarian assessment of the market during the active conflict.
"Nothing to fear."
Mohamed Alabbar, Emaar — on the conflict and Dubai real estate · CNBC, March 2026
"Nobody wants to budge."
Alabbar on owners refusing discounts — after 2 days trying to buy a seafront apartment without finding a willing seller
"We are not here for the short run. We are here for a long, long time to do business."
Mohamed Alabbar — on Dubai's and Emaar's long-term commitment · CNBC, March 2026
Fitch forecast (15% decline)"Very unrealistic" — categorically dismissed
Sustainable growth target5–6% per year — the "sweet spot"
Structural differentiatorDubai not leveraged on credit → protected from Western crashes
Capital in instabilitySmart capital will "double down" on Dubai during instability
Emaar 2024+40% real estate revenue in 2024
Emaar 2025 (expectation)+40% real estate revenue expected
▷
ARK Note: Alabbar has an obvious conflict of interest as Emaar CEO, but the empirical data of his personal purchase attempt — 2 days searching on the seafront without finding a seller willing to discount — is a genuine, non-distortable market indicator. Owners of quality assets in Dubai are not panicking.